Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 20.974393 22.898386 25.038301 27.619549 30.683122 34.248573 38.782374
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.211327 20.742073 23.777617 27.776787 33.056005 40.030362 50.424017
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 16.165373 18.959267 22.495493 27.475299 34.641851 45.236255 63.737867
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.795100 17.755414 21.667188 27.492808 36.547156 51.467833 82.445834
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.658063 16.678118 20.803336 27.227771 37.880593 57.251348 105.309447
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.738522 15.773838 20.033384 26.920910 39.009143 63.119469 135.536864
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.997450 15.033144 19.393151 26.680432 40.153736 69.570118 179.286342
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.387921 14.418009 18.860105 26.510424 41.362921 76.860774 248.057817
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.762889 13.727166 18.136968 25.899379 41.532885 81.687319 329.262601
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.573187 13.658232 18.367113 26.986770 45.572912 100.734692 776.938879
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.141096 13.190431 17.910364 26.740562 46.547447 110.928002 1739.912091
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.812802 12.857875 17.642962 26.811872 48.318225 126.392914 24542.304225
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.524658 12.574075 17.440612 27.000864 50.529440 147.761024 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.249518 12.293716 17.220749 27.125864 52.651815 173.565392 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.930722 11.925805 16.821153 26.824658 53.482860 194.236827 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.684821 11.661209 16.582440 26.836367 55.304926 229.142370 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.419332 11.351044 16.240486 26.579638 56.215372 261.245465 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.167929 11.051899 15.898698 26.283963 56.933419 297.224213 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.942712 10.785569 15.599732 26.052540 57.836613 344.751147 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.741364 10.549833 15.342306 25.889017 58.969298 410.674454 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.498766 10.235877 14.922927 25.301646 58.330322 440.143883 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.471154 10.279770 15.172633 26.346465 64.659160 822.239120 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.293271 10.061909 14.913217 26.109974 65.533199 1072.603719 NaN